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Resistencia vs Tacuary — Division Intermedia 2026

Resistencia
Resistencia
Preview
13:00
Tacuary
Tacuary
8/1/2026Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 17
Big match
43%
Resistencia
model favours
43%26%31%

Tacuary score first in only 8% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
under 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Resistencia43%
×Draw26%
Tacuary31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Resistencia
1.44
Tacuary
1.20

Resistencia creates 20% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 40 away

creates per match

Resistencia
1.49
Tacuary
1.27

allows per match

Resistencia
1.13
Tacuary
1.40

finishing

Resistencia+0.00on par
Tacuary+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 51Over: 4951%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 53No: 4753%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Resistencia ↓

Tacuary →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Resistencia or draw
69%
Resistencia or Tacuary
74%
Draw or Tacuary
57%

Winning margin

Resistencia wins by 2+
20%
Tacuary wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Resistencia 1+ goals
76%
Resistencia 2+ goals
42%
Resistencia 3+ goals
18%
Tacuary 1+ goals
70%
Tacuary 2+ goals
34%
Tacuary 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Resistencia (draw refunded)
58%
Tacuary (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Resistencia at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.13 · 84 matches

Tacuary away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.40 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Resistencia attack 1.49 + Tacuary defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.44

Tacuary attack 1.27 + Resistencia defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Resistencia scores more
43%
level
26%
Tacuary scores more
31%

Resistencia at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Resistencia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Resistencia score first in only 18% of matches
  • Tacuary are unbeaten in 6 straight
  • Both teams score in 91% of Resistencia’s matches
  • Both teams score in 85% of Tacuary’s matches
  • Resistencia sit 15, Tacuary 3 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Resistencia
LDLWL
Tacuary
DDDWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Resistencia vs Tacuary — Match Preview

Resistencia face Tacuary on August 1, 2026 in this Division Intermedia fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.