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Requins vs Police — Championnat National 2019

Requins
Requins
FT
2 – 1
Police
Police
11/17/2021Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Round 3Terrain Campus Abomey Calavi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Requins50%
×Draw27%
Police24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Requins
1.45
Police
0.91

Requins creates 59% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 75 away

creates per match

Requins
1.29
Police
0.88

allows per match

Requins
0.93
Police
1.61

finishing

Requins+0.00on par
Police+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Requins ↓

Police →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Requins or draw
76%
Requins or Police
73%
Draw or Police
50%

Winning margin

Requins wins by 2+
25%
Police wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Requins 1+ goals
77%
Requins 2+ goals
42%
Requins 3+ goals
18%
Police 1+ goals
60%
Police 2+ goals
23%
Police 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Requins (draw refunded)
68%
Police (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Requins at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.93 · 92 matches

Police away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.61 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Requins attack 1.29 + Police defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.45

Police attack 0.88 + Requins defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Requins scores more
50%
level
27%
Police scores more
24%

Requins at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Requins will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Requins vs Police

Requins beat Police 2-1 in Championnat National on November 17, 2021.

The match was played at Terrain Campus Abomey Calavi in Abomey Calavi.