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Republic of Ireland U21 vs England U21 — League #850 2026

Republic of Ireland U21
Republic of Ireland U21
Preview
15:00
England U21
England U21
10/6/2026League #850League #850
57%
England U21
model favours
20%23%57%
0–1
likely score
54%
over 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Republic of Ireland U2120%
×Draw23%
England U2157%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Republic of Ireland U21
1.00
England U21
1.83

England U21 creates 83% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Republic of Ireland U21
1.33
England U21
2.67

allows per match

Republic of Ireland U21
1.00
England U21
0.67

finishing

Republic of Ireland U21+0.00on par
England U21+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Republic of Ireland U21 ↓

England U21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Republic of Ireland U21 or draw
43%
Republic of Ireland U21 or England U21
77%
Draw or England U21
80%

Winning margin

Republic of Ireland U21 wins by 2+
7%
England U21 wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Republic of Ireland U21 1+ goals
63%
Republic of Ireland U21 2+ goals
26%
Republic of Ireland U21 3+ goals
8%
England U21 1+ goals
84%
England U21 2+ goals
54%
England U21 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Republic of Ireland U21 (draw refunded)
26%
England U21 (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Republic of Ireland U21 at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

England U21 away — creates 2.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Republic of Ireland U21 attack 1.33 + England U21 defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.00

England U21 attack 2.67 + Republic of Ireland U21 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Republic of Ireland U21 scores more
20%
level
23%
England U21 scores more
57%

England U21 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "England U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
U21
DDWDL
U21
WWWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Republic of Ireland U21 host England U21

October 6, 2026: Republic of Ireland U21 take on England U21 in League #850. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.