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Renofa Yamaguchi vs Vegalta Sendai — J2 League 2018

Renofa Yamaguchi
Renofa Yamaguchi
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Vegalta Sendai
Vegalta Sendai
6/18/2023J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 21Ishin Me-Life Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Renofa Yamaguchi35%
×Draw26%
Vegalta Sendai39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Renofa Yamaguchi
1.28
Vegalta Sendai
1.37

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 167 home / 82 away

creates per match

Renofa Yamaguchi
1.26
Vegalta Sendai
1.37

allows per match

Renofa Yamaguchi
1.36
Vegalta Sendai
1.30

finishing

Renofa Yamaguchi+0.00on par
Vegalta Sendai+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Renofa Yamaguchi ↓

Vegalta Sendai →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Renofa Yamaguchi or draw
61%
Renofa Yamaguchi or Vegalta Sendai
74%
Draw or Vegalta Sendai
65%

Winning margin

Renofa Yamaguchi wins by 2+
15%
Vegalta Sendai wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Renofa Yamaguchi 1+ goals
72%
Renofa Yamaguchi 2+ goals
37%
Renofa Yamaguchi 3+ goals
14%
Vegalta Sendai 1+ goals
75%
Vegalta Sendai 2+ goals
40%
Vegalta Sendai 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Renofa Yamaguchi (draw refunded)
47%
Vegalta Sendai (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Renofa Yamaguchi at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.36 · 167 matches

Vegalta Sendai away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.30 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Renofa Yamaguchi attack 1.26 + Vegalta Sendai defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.28

Vegalta Sendai attack 1.37 + Renofa Yamaguchi defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Renofa Yamaguchi scores more
35%
level
26%
Vegalta Sendai scores more
39%

Vegalta Sendai at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Vegalta Sendai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Renofa Yamaguchi vs Vegalta Sendai

Renofa Yamaguchi beat Vegalta Sendai 2-0 in J2 League on June 18, 2023.

The match was played at Ishin Me-Life Stadium in Yamaguchi.