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Renofa Yamaguchi vs Tokyo Verdy — J2 League 2018

Renofa Yamaguchi
Renofa Yamaguchi
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Tokyo Verdy
Tokyo Verdy
9/19/2020J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 20Ishin Me-Life Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 130+ matches

Renofa Yamaguchi34%
×Draw26%
Tokyo Verdy40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Renofa Yamaguchi
1.25
Tokyo Verdy
1.37

Tokyo Verdy creates 10% more chances

Season form · 167 home / 130 away

creates per match

Renofa Yamaguchi
1.26
Tokyo Verdy
1.38

allows per match

Renofa Yamaguchi
1.36
Tokyo Verdy
1.25

finishing

Renofa Yamaguchi+0.00on par
Tokyo Verdy+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Renofa Yamaguchi ↓

Tokyo Verdy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Renofa Yamaguchi or draw
60%
Renofa Yamaguchi or Tokyo Verdy
74%
Draw or Tokyo Verdy
66%

Winning margin

Renofa Yamaguchi wins by 2+
15%
Tokyo Verdy wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Renofa Yamaguchi 1+ goals
71%
Renofa Yamaguchi 2+ goals
36%
Renofa Yamaguchi 3+ goals
13%
Tokyo Verdy 1+ goals
75%
Tokyo Verdy 2+ goals
40%
Tokyo Verdy 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Renofa Yamaguchi (draw refunded)
46%
Tokyo Verdy (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Renofa Yamaguchi at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.36 · 167 matches

Tokyo Verdy away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.25 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Renofa Yamaguchi attack 1.26 + Tokyo Verdy defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.25

Tokyo Verdy attack 1.38 + Renofa Yamaguchi defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Renofa Yamaguchi scores more
34%
level
26%
Tokyo Verdy scores more
40%

Tokyo Verdy at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tokyo Verdy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J2 League: Renofa Yamaguchi 2–1 Tokyo Verdy

Renofa Yamaguchi beat Tokyo Verdy 2-1 in J2 League on September 19, 2020.

The match was played at Ishin Me-Life Stadium in Yamaguchi.