Renofa Yamaguchi 0–3 Tokushima Vortis

Renofa Yamaguchi

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Tokushima Vortis

10/21/2020

J2 League · Round 28Ishin Me-Life Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 147+ matches

Renofa Yamaguchi33%

×Draw28%

Tokushima Vortis39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Renofa YamaguchiExpected goals in this matchTokushima Vortis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.27

Renofa Yamaguchi

1.14

Tokushima Vortis

1.27

Tokushima Vortis creates 11% more chances

Season form · 167 home / 147 away

1.26

creates per match

1.19

1.36

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

Renofa Yamaguchi

1.26

Tokushima Vortis

1.19

allows per match

Renofa Yamaguchi

1.36

Tokushima Vortis

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Renofa Yamaguchi+0.00on par

Tokushima Vortis+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Renofa Yamaguchi ↓

Tokushima Vortis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Renofa Yamaguchi or draw

61%

Renofa Yamaguchi or Tokushima Vortis

72%

Draw or Tokushima Vortis

67%

Winning margin

Renofa Yamaguchi wins by 2+

13%

Tokushima Vortis wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Renofa Yamaguchi 1+ goals

68%

Renofa Yamaguchi 2+ goals

32%

Renofa Yamaguchi 3+ goals

11%

Tokushima Vortis 1+ goals

72%

Tokushima Vortis 2+ goals

36%

Tokushima Vortis 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Renofa Yamaguchi (draw refunded)

46%

Tokushima Vortis (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Renofa Yamaguchi at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.36 · 167 matches

Tokushima Vortis away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.02 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Renofa Yamaguchi attack 1.26 + Tokushima Vortis defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.14

Tokushima Vortis attack 1.19 + Renofa Yamaguchi defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Renofa Yamaguchi scores more

33%

level

28%

Tokushima Vortis scores more

39%

Tokushima Vortis at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Tokushima Vortis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff