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Renofa Yamaguchi vs Tochigi SC — J2 League 2018

Renofa Yamaguchi
Renofa Yamaguchi
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Tochigi SC
Tochigi SC
4/30/2022J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 13Ishin Me-Life Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 148+ matches

Renofa Yamaguchi40%
×Draw28%
Tochigi SC32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Renofa Yamaguchi
1.23
Tochigi SC
1.06

Renofa Yamaguchi creates 16% more chances

Season form · 167 home / 148 away

creates per match

Renofa Yamaguchi
1.26
Tochigi SC
0.76

allows per match

Renofa Yamaguchi
1.36
Tochigi SC
1.20

finishing

Renofa Yamaguchi+0.00on par
Tochigi SC+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Renofa Yamaguchi ↓

Tochigi SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Renofa Yamaguchi or draw
68%
Renofa Yamaguchi or Tochigi SC
72%
Draw or Tochigi SC
60%

Winning margin

Renofa Yamaguchi wins by 2+
17%
Tochigi SC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Renofa Yamaguchi 1+ goals
71%
Renofa Yamaguchi 2+ goals
35%
Renofa Yamaguchi 3+ goals
13%
Tochigi SC 1+ goals
65%
Tochigi SC 2+ goals
29%
Tochigi SC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Renofa Yamaguchi (draw refunded)
56%
Tochigi SC (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Renofa Yamaguchi at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.36 · 167 matches

Tochigi SC away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.20 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Renofa Yamaguchi attack 1.26 + Tochigi SC defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.23

Tochigi SC attack 0.76 + Renofa Yamaguchi defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Renofa Yamaguchi scores more
40%
level
28%
Tochigi SC scores more
32%

Renofa Yamaguchi at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Renofa Yamaguchi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J2 League: Renofa Yamaguchi 2–1 Tochigi SC

Renofa Yamaguchi beat Tochigi SC 2-1 in J2 League on April 30, 2022.

The match was played at Ishin Me-Life Stadium in Yamaguchi.