Renofa Yamaguchi 2–1 Thespakusatsu Gunma

Renofa Yamaguchi

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Thespakusatsu Gunma

6/5/2022

J2 League · Round 20Ishin Me-Life Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Renofa Yamaguchi42%

×Draw26%

Thespakusatsu Gunma31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Renofa YamaguchiExpected goals in this matchThespakusatsu Gunma

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.17

Renofa Yamaguchi

1.40

Thespakusatsu Gunma

1.17

Renofa Yamaguchi creates 20% more chances

Season form · 167 home / 105 away

1.26

creates per match

0.97

1.36

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Renofa Yamaguchi

1.26

Thespakusatsu Gunma

0.97

allows per match

Renofa Yamaguchi

1.36

Thespakusatsu Gunma

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Renofa Yamaguchi+0.00on par

Thespakusatsu Gunma+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Renofa Yamaguchi ↓

Thespakusatsu Gunma →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Renofa Yamaguchi or draw

69%

Renofa Yamaguchi or Thespakusatsu Gunma

74%

Draw or Thespakusatsu Gunma

58%

Winning margin

Renofa Yamaguchi wins by 2+

20%

Thespakusatsu Gunma wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Renofa Yamaguchi 1+ goals

75%

Renofa Yamaguchi 2+ goals

41%

Renofa Yamaguchi 3+ goals

17%

Thespakusatsu Gunma 1+ goals

69%

Thespakusatsu Gunma 2+ goals

33%

Thespakusatsu Gunma 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Renofa Yamaguchi (draw refunded)

57%

Thespakusatsu Gunma (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Renofa Yamaguchi at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.36 · 167 matches

Thespakusatsu Gunma away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.53 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Renofa Yamaguchi attack 1.26 + Thespakusatsu Gunma defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.40

Thespakusatsu Gunma attack 0.97 + Renofa Yamaguchi defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Renofa Yamaguchi scores more

42%

level

26%

Thespakusatsu Gunma scores more

31%

Renofa Yamaguchi at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Renofa Yamaguchi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff