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Renofa Yamaguchi vs Omiya Ardija — J2 League 2018

Renofa Yamaguchi
Renofa Yamaguchi
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Omiya Ardija
Omiya Ardija
4/3/2022J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 8Ishin Me-Life Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 146+ matches

Renofa Yamaguchi38%
×Draw27%
Omiya Ardija35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Renofa Yamaguchi
1.29
Omiya Ardija
1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 167 home / 146 away

creates per match

Renofa Yamaguchi
1.26
Omiya Ardija
1.12

allows per match

Renofa Yamaguchi
1.36
Omiya Ardija
1.32

finishing

Renofa Yamaguchi+0.00on par
Omiya Ardija+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Renofa Yamaguchi ↓

Omiya Ardija →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Renofa Yamaguchi or draw
65%
Renofa Yamaguchi or Omiya Ardija
73%
Draw or Omiya Ardija
62%

Winning margin

Renofa Yamaguchi wins by 2+
17%
Omiya Ardija wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Renofa Yamaguchi 1+ goals
72%
Renofa Yamaguchi 2+ goals
37%
Renofa Yamaguchi 3+ goals
14%
Omiya Ardija 1+ goals
71%
Omiya Ardija 2+ goals
35%
Omiya Ardija 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Renofa Yamaguchi (draw refunded)
52%
Omiya Ardija (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Renofa Yamaguchi at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.36 · 167 matches

Omiya Ardija away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.32 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Renofa Yamaguchi attack 1.26 + Omiya Ardija defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.29

Omiya Ardija attack 1.12 + Renofa Yamaguchi defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Renofa Yamaguchi scores more
38%
level
27%
Omiya Ardija scores more
35%

Renofa Yamaguchi at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Renofa Yamaguchi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J2 League: Renofa Yamaguchi 1–0 Omiya Ardija

Renofa Yamaguchi beat Omiya Ardija 1-0 in J2 League on April 3, 2022.

The match was played at Ishin Me-Life Stadium in Yamaguchi.