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Renofa Yamaguchi vs Oita Trinita — J2 League 2018

Renofa Yamaguchi
Renofa Yamaguchi
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Oita Trinita
Oita Trinita
8/6/2023J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 29Ishin Me-Life Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Renofa Yamaguchi38%
×Draw27%
Oita Trinita36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Renofa Yamaguchi
1.31
Oita Trinita
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 167 home / 102 away

creates per match

Renofa Yamaguchi
1.26
Oita Trinita
1.18

allows per match

Renofa Yamaguchi
1.36
Oita Trinita
1.37

finishing

Renofa Yamaguchi+0.00on par
Oita Trinita+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Renofa Yamaguchi ↓

Oita Trinita →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Renofa Yamaguchi or draw
64%
Renofa Yamaguchi or Oita Trinita
73%
Draw or Oita Trinita
62%

Winning margin

Renofa Yamaguchi wins by 2+
17%
Oita Trinita wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Renofa Yamaguchi 1+ goals
73%
Renofa Yamaguchi 2+ goals
38%
Renofa Yamaguchi 3+ goals
14%
Oita Trinita 1+ goals
72%
Oita Trinita 2+ goals
36%
Oita Trinita 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Renofa Yamaguchi (draw refunded)
51%
Oita Trinita (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Renofa Yamaguchi at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.36 · 167 matches

Oita Trinita away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.37 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Renofa Yamaguchi attack 1.26 + Oita Trinita defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.31

Oita Trinita attack 1.18 + Renofa Yamaguchi defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Renofa Yamaguchi scores more
38%
level
27%
Oita Trinita scores more
36%

Renofa Yamaguchi at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Renofa Yamaguchi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J2 League: Renofa Yamaguchi 2–2 Oita Trinita

Renofa Yamaguchi and Oita Trinita drew 2-2 in J2 League on August 6, 2023.

The match was played at Ishin Me-Life Stadium in Yamaguchi.