Renofa Yamaguchi 3–0 Jubilo Iwata: Result & Stats

Renofa Yamaguchi

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Jubilo Iwata

9/30/2020

J2 League · Round 23Ishin Me-Life Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Renofa Yamaguchi32%

×Draw26%

Jubilo Iwata42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Renofa YamaguchiExpected goals in this matchJubilo Iwata

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.39

Renofa Yamaguchi

1.18

Jubilo Iwata

1.39

Jubilo Iwata creates 18% more chances

Season form · 167 home / 84 away

1.26

creates per match

1.42

1.36

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Renofa Yamaguchi

1.26

Jubilo Iwata

1.42

allows per match

Renofa Yamaguchi

1.36

Jubilo Iwata

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Renofa Yamaguchi+0.00on par

Jubilo Iwata+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Renofa Yamaguchi ↓

Jubilo Iwata →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Renofa Yamaguchi or draw

58%

Renofa Yamaguchi or Jubilo Iwata

74%

Draw or Jubilo Iwata

68%

Winning margin

Renofa Yamaguchi wins by 2+

13%

Jubilo Iwata wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Renofa Yamaguchi 1+ goals

69%

Renofa Yamaguchi 2+ goals

33%

Renofa Yamaguchi 3+ goals

12%

Jubilo Iwata 1+ goals

75%

Jubilo Iwata 2+ goals

40%

Jubilo Iwata 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Renofa Yamaguchi (draw refunded)

43%

Jubilo Iwata (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Renofa Yamaguchi at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.36 · 167 matches

Jubilo Iwata away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.10 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Renofa Yamaguchi attack 1.26 + Jubilo Iwata defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.18

Jubilo Iwata attack 1.42 + Renofa Yamaguchi defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Renofa Yamaguchi scores more

32%

level

26%

Jubilo Iwata scores more

42%

Jubilo Iwata at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Jubilo Iwata will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff