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Renofa Yamaguchi vs Ehime FC — J2 League 2018

Renofa Yamaguchi
Renofa Yamaguchi
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Ehime FC
Ehime FC
9/14/2019J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 32Ishin Me-Life Stadium (Yamaguchi)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 123+ matches

Renofa Yamaguchi43%
×Draw26%
Ehime FC31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Renofa Yamaguchi
1.45
Ehime FC
1.17

Renofa Yamaguchi creates 24% more chances

Season form · 167 home / 123 away

creates per match

Renofa Yamaguchi
1.26
Ehime FC
0.98

allows per match

Renofa Yamaguchi
1.36
Ehime FC
1.64

finishing

Renofa Yamaguchi+0.00on par
Ehime FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Renofa Yamaguchi ↓

Ehime FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Renofa Yamaguchi or draw
69%
Renofa Yamaguchi or Ehime FC
74%
Draw or Ehime FC
57%

Winning margin

Renofa Yamaguchi wins by 2+
21%
Ehime FC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Renofa Yamaguchi 1+ goals
77%
Renofa Yamaguchi 2+ goals
42%
Renofa Yamaguchi 3+ goals
18%
Ehime FC 1+ goals
69%
Ehime FC 2+ goals
33%
Ehime FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Renofa Yamaguchi (draw refunded)
59%
Ehime FC (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Renofa Yamaguchi at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.36 · 167 matches

Ehime FC away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.64 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Renofa Yamaguchi attack 1.26 + Ehime FC defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.45

Ehime FC attack 0.98 + Renofa Yamaguchi defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Renofa Yamaguchi scores more
43%
level
26%
Ehime FC scores more
31%

Renofa Yamaguchi at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Renofa Yamaguchi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J2 League: Renofa Yamaguchi 2–1 Ehime FC

Renofa Yamaguchi beat Ehime FC 2-1 in J2 League on September 14, 2019.

The match was played at Ishin Me-Life Stadium (Yamaguchi).