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Renate U19 vs Reggiana U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Renate U19
Renate U19
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Reggiana U19
Reggiana U19
12/16/2023Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group A - 12Stadio Mario Riboldi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Renate U1953%
×Draw24%
Reggiana U1924%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Renate U19
1.73
Reggiana U19
1.08

Renate U19 creates 60% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 86 away

creates per match

Renate U19
1.16
Reggiana U19
1.06

allows per match

Renate U19
1.09
Reggiana U19
2.29

finishing

Renate U19+0.00on par
Reggiana U19+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Renate U19 ↓

Reggiana U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Renate U19 or draw
76%
Renate U19 or Reggiana U19
76%
Draw or Reggiana U19
47%

Winning margin

Renate U19 wins by 2+
29%
Reggiana U19 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Renate U19 1+ goals
82%
Renate U19 2+ goals
52%
Renate U19 3+ goals
25%
Reggiana U19 1+ goals
66%
Reggiana U19 2+ goals
29%
Reggiana U19 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Renate U19 (draw refunded)
69%
Reggiana U19 (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Renate U19 at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.09 · 45 matches

Reggiana U19 away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.29 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Renate U19 attack 1.16 + Reggiana U19 defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.73

Reggiana U19 attack 1.06 + Renate U19 defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Renate U19 scores more
53%
level
24%
Reggiana U19 scores more
24%

Renate U19 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Renate U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Renate U19 vs Reggiana U19

Renate U19 beat Reggiana U19 1-0 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on December 16, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Mario Riboldi in Renate.