Renaissance 4–3 Etoile de Kivu: Result & Stats

Renaissance

FT

4 – 3

HT: 2 – 2

Etoile de Kivu

11/29/2023

Ligue 1 · Round 13Stade Tata Raphaël

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Renaissance41%

×Draw28%

Etoile de Kivu31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RenaissanceExpected goals in this matchEtoile de Kivu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.06

Renaissance

1.25

Etoile de Kivu

1.06

Renaissance creates 18% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 46 away

1.04

creates per match

0.80

1.31

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Renaissance

1.04

Etoile de Kivu

0.80

allows per match

Renaissance

1.31

Etoile de Kivu

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Renaissance+0.00on par

Etoile de Kivu+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Renaissance ↓

Etoile de Kivu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Renaissance or draw

69%

Renaissance or Etoile de Kivu

72%

Draw or Etoile de Kivu

59%

Winning margin

Renaissance wins by 2+

18%

Etoile de Kivu wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Renaissance 1+ goals

71%

Renaissance 2+ goals

36%

Renaissance 3+ goals

13%

Etoile de Kivu 1+ goals

65%

Etoile de Kivu 2+ goals

29%

Etoile de Kivu 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Renaissance (draw refunded)

56%

Etoile de Kivu (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Renaissance at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.31 · 78 matches

Etoile de Kivu away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.46 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Renaissance attack 1.04 + Etoile de Kivu defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.25

Etoile de Kivu attack 0.80 + Renaissance defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Renaissance scores more

41%

level

28%

Etoile de Kivu scores more

31%

Renaissance at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Renaissance will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff