Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Renaissance Berkane vs Youssoufia Berrechid — Cup 2020

Renaissance Berkane
Renaissance Berkaneadvanced
FT
2 – 0
Youssoufia Berrechid
Youssoufia Berrechid
1/1/2021CupCup · Round of 32Stade Municipal de Berkane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Renaissance Berkane70%
×Draw18%
Youssoufia Berrechid12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Renaissance Berkane
2.21
Youssoufia Berrechid
0.79

Renaissance Berkane creates 180% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Renaissance Berkane
2.67
Youssoufia Berrechid
1.25

allows per match

Renaissance Berkane
0.33
Youssoufia Berrechid
1.75

finishing

Renaissance Berkane+0.00on par
Youssoufia Berrechid+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Renaissance Berkane ↓

Youssoufia Berrechid →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Renaissance Berkane or draw
88%
Renaissance Berkane or Youssoufia Berrechid
82%
Draw or Youssoufia Berrechid
30%

Winning margin

Renaissance Berkane wins by 2+
45%
Youssoufia Berrechid wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Renaissance Berkane 1+ goals
89%
Renaissance Berkane 2+ goals
65%
Renaissance Berkane 3+ goals
38%
Youssoufia Berrechid 1+ goals
55%
Youssoufia Berrechid 2+ goals
19%
Youssoufia Berrechid 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Renaissance Berkane (draw refunded)
85%
Youssoufia Berrechid (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Renaissance Berkane at home — creates 2.67, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Youssoufia Berrechid away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Renaissance Berkane attack 2.67 + Youssoufia Berrechid defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.21

Youssoufia Berrechid attack 1.25 + Renaissance Berkane defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Renaissance Berkane scores more
70%
level
18%
Youssoufia Berrechid scores more
12%

Renaissance Berkane at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Renaissance Berkane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Renaissance Berkane vs Youssoufia Berrechid

Renaissance Berkane beat Youssoufia Berrechid 2-0 in Cup on January 1, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Berkane in Berkane.