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Renaissance Berkane vs Wydad AC — Cup 2020

Renaissance Berkane
Renaissance Berkaneadvanced
Pens
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Wydad AC
Wydad AC
7/28/2022CupCup · FinalStade Prince Moulay Abdallah

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Renaissance Berkane47%
×Draw24%
Wydad AC29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Renaissance Berkane
1.67
Wydad AC
1.25

Renaissance Berkane creates 34% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

Renaissance Berkane
2.67
Wydad AC
2.17

allows per match

Renaissance Berkane
0.33
Wydad AC
0.67

finishing

Renaissance Berkane+0.00on par
Wydad AC+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Renaissance Berkane ↓

Wydad AC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Renaissance Berkane or draw
71%
Renaissance Berkane or Wydad AC
76%
Draw or Wydad AC
53%

Winning margin

Renaissance Berkane wins by 2+
25%
Wydad AC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Renaissance Berkane 1+ goals
81%
Renaissance Berkane 2+ goals
50%
Renaissance Berkane 3+ goals
23%
Wydad AC 1+ goals
71%
Wydad AC 2+ goals
36%
Wydad AC 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Renaissance Berkane (draw refunded)
62%
Wydad AC (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Renaissance Berkane at home — creates 2.67, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Wydad AC away — creates 2.17, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Renaissance Berkane attack 2.67 + Wydad AC defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.67

Wydad AC attack 2.17 + Renaissance Berkane defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Renaissance Berkane scores more
47%
level
24%
Wydad AC scores more
29%

Renaissance Berkane at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Renaissance Berkane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

52'
H. El Moussaoui
64'
A. Ba← M. Oubila
66'
R. Jaadi
71'
I. El Bahraoui← I. El Bahraoui
86'
B. Aouk← B. Aouk
90+1'
Z. El Moutaraji
91'
H. El Moussaoui← A. Baadi
91'
C. Lukombe← T. Kisinda
102'
S. El Moudane
107'
R. Jaadi← M. Chrachem
120'
J. Daoudi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Renaissance Berkane vs Wydad AC

Renaissance Berkane and Wydad AC drew 0-0 in Cup on July 28, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Prince Moulay Abdallah in Rabat.