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Renaissance Berkane vs Raja Casablanca — Botola Pro 2025

Renaissance Berkane
Renaissance Berkane
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Raja Casablanca
Raja Casablanca
12/24/2023Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 12Stade Municipal de Berkane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 120+ matches

Renaissance Berkane39%
×Draw28%
Raja Casablanca34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Renaissance Berkane
1.24
Raja Casablanca
1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 120 home / 121 away

creates per match

Renaissance Berkane
1.54
Raja Casablanca
1.34

allows per match

Renaissance Berkane
0.94
Raja Casablanca
0.94

finishing

Renaissance Berkane+0.00on par
Raja Casablanca+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Renaissance Berkane ↓

Raja Casablanca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Renaissance Berkane or draw
66%
Renaissance Berkane or Raja Casablanca
72%
Draw or Raja Casablanca
61%

Winning margin

Renaissance Berkane wins by 2+
17%
Raja Casablanca wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Renaissance Berkane 1+ goals
71%
Renaissance Berkane 2+ goals
35%
Renaissance Berkane 3+ goals
13%
Raja Casablanca 1+ goals
68%
Raja Casablanca 2+ goals
32%
Raja Casablanca 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Renaissance Berkane (draw refunded)
53%
Raja Casablanca (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Renaissance Berkane at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.94 · 120 matches

Raja Casablanca away — creates 1.34, concedes 0.94 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Renaissance Berkane attack 1.54 + Raja Casablanca defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.24

Raja Casablanca attack 1.34 + Renaissance Berkane defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Renaissance Berkane scores more
39%
level
28%
Raja Casablanca scores more
34%

Renaissance Berkane at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Renaissance Berkane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Renaissance Berkane vs Raja Casablanca

Renaissance Berkane and Raja Casablanca drew 1-1 in Botola Pro on December 24, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Berkane in Berkane.