Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Renaissance Berkane vs Olympique Safi — Botola Pro 2025

Renaissance Berkane
Renaissance Berkane
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Olympique Safi
Olympique Safi
12/7/2023Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 10Stade Municipal de Berkane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 120+ matches

Renaissance Berkane48%
×Draw27%
Olympique Safi25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Renaissance Berkane
1.42
Olympique Safi
0.95

Renaissance Berkane creates 49% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 120 away

creates per match

Renaissance Berkane
1.54
Olympique Safi
0.96

allows per match

Renaissance Berkane
0.94
Olympique Safi
1.29

finishing

Renaissance Berkane+0.00on par
Olympique Safi+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Renaissance Berkane ↓

Olympique Safi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Renaissance Berkane or draw
75%
Renaissance Berkane or Olympique Safi
73%
Draw or Olympique Safi
52%

Winning margin

Renaissance Berkane wins by 2+
23%
Olympique Safi wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Renaissance Berkane 1+ goals
76%
Renaissance Berkane 2+ goals
41%
Renaissance Berkane 3+ goals
17%
Olympique Safi 1+ goals
61%
Olympique Safi 2+ goals
25%
Olympique Safi 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Renaissance Berkane (draw refunded)
65%
Olympique Safi (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Renaissance Berkane at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.94 · 120 matches

Olympique Safi away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.29 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Renaissance Berkane attack 1.54 + Olympique Safi defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.42

Olympique Safi attack 0.96 + Renaissance Berkane defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Renaissance Berkane scores more
48%
level
27%
Olympique Safi scores more
25%

Renaissance Berkane at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Renaissance Berkane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Renaissance Berkane vs Olympique Safi

Renaissance Berkane beat Olympique Safi 3-0 in Botola Pro on December 7, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Berkane in Berkane.