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Remo Stars vs El Kanemi Warriors — NPFL 2019

Remo Stars
Remo Stars
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
El Kanemi Warriors
El Kanemi Warriors
1/15/2023NPFLNPFL · Round 1Remo Stars Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Remo Stars69%
×Draw22%
El Kanemi Warriors9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Remo Stars
1.71
El Kanemi Warriors
0.43

Remo Stars creates 298% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 59 away

creates per match

Remo Stars
1.59
El Kanemi Warriors
0.44

allows per match

Remo Stars
0.43
El Kanemi Warriors
1.83

finishing

Remo Stars+0.00on par
El Kanemi Warriors+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Remo Stars ↓

El Kanemi Warriors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–017%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Remo Stars or draw
91%
Remo Stars or El Kanemi Warriors
78%
Draw or El Kanemi Warriors
31%

Winning margin

Remo Stars wins by 2+
41%
El Kanemi Warriors wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Remo Stars 1+ goals
82%
Remo Stars 2+ goals
51%
Remo Stars 3+ goals
24%
El Kanemi Warriors 1+ goals
35%
El Kanemi Warriors 2+ goals
7%
El Kanemi Warriors 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Remo Stars (draw refunded)
89%
El Kanemi Warriors (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Remo Stars at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.43 · 98 matches

El Kanemi Warriors away — creates 0.44, concedes 1.83 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Remo Stars attack 1.59 + El Kanemi Warriors defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.71

El Kanemi Warriors attack 0.44 + Remo Stars defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Remo Stars scores more
69%
level
22%
El Kanemi Warriors scores more
9%

Remo Stars at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Remo Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Remo Stars vs El Kanemi Warriors

Remo Stars beat El Kanemi Warriors 2-0 in NPFL on January 15, 2023.

The match was played at Remo Stars Stadium in Ikenne.