Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Reggiana vs Bari — Serie B 2018

Reggiana
Reggiana
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Bari
Bari
N. Girma 10'
V. Di Cesare 34'
10/7/2023Serie BSerie B · Round 9MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Reggiana46%
×Draw27%
Bari27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Reggiana
1.41
Bari
1.02

Reggiana creates 38% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 14 away

creates per match

Reggiana
0.95
Bari
0.72

allows per match

Reggiana
1.32
Bari
1.86

finishing

Reggiana-0.22scores less
Bari+0.07on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reggiana ↓

Bari →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Reggiana or draw
73%
Reggiana or Bari
73%
Draw or Bari
54%

Winning margin

Reggiana wins by 2+
22%
Bari wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Reggiana 1+ goals
76%
Reggiana 2+ goals
41%
Reggiana 3+ goals
17%
Bari 1+ goals
64%
Bari 2+ goals
27%
Bari 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Reggiana (draw refunded)
63%
Bari (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reggiana at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.32 · 11 matches

Bari away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reggiana attack 0.95 + Bari defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.41

Bari attack 0.72 + Reggiana defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Reggiana scores more
46%
level
27%
Bari scores more
27%

Reggiana at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Reggiana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

80
N. GirmaReggianaReggiana · M
7.9

Match Events

10'
N. Girma↳ S. Pettinari
30'
Gennaro Acampora
34'
V. Di Cesare↳ R. Maiello
38'
Elvis Kabashi
46'
E. Matino← D. Diaw
57'
G. Sibilli← I. Koutsoupias
62'
C. Gondo← S. Pettinari
62'
F. Nardi← D. Črnigoj
76'
G. Morachioli← M. Nasti
77'
Ahmed Benali← R. Maiello
80'
Muhamed Djamanca← N. Girma
80'
L. Libutti← E. Pieragnolo
83'
N. Bellomo← M. Aramu
86'
Alessandro Bianco
90'
L. Cigarini← E. Kabashi

Possession

56%Reggiana

Shots

14Reggiana

Pass accuracy

52%Reggiana

Statistics

ReggianaBari
Overview
56%Possession44%
14Total Shots10
6Corners9
19Fouls12
Shots
14Total Shots10
3On Target2
7Off Target4
4Blocked4
8Inside Box4
6Outside Box6
Passing
56%Possession44%
491Total Passes382
427Accurate Passes310
87%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
19Fouls12
2Yellow Cards1

Reggiana 1 – 1 Bari

Reggiana and Bari drew 1-1 in Serie B on October 7, 2023.

Goals: N. Girma (10'), V. Di Cesare (34').

Reggiana controlled possession (56%) and registered 14 shots to 10.

The match was played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore in Reggio Emilia.