Reggiana U19 1–0 Padova U19: Result & Stats

Reggiana U19

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Padova U19

1/13/2024

Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group A - 14Stadio Comunale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Reggiana U1942%

×Draw25%

Padova U1933%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Reggiana U19Expected goals in this matchPadova U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.27

Reggiana U19

1.48

Padova U19

1.27

Reggiana U19 creates 17% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 61 away

1.22

creates per match

0.98

1.55

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Reggiana U19

1.22

Padova U19

0.98

allows per match

Reggiana U19

1.55

Padova U19

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Reggiana U19+0.00on par

Padova U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reggiana U19 ↓

Padova U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Reggiana U19 or draw

67%

Reggiana U19 or Padova U19

75%

Draw or Padova U19

58%

Winning margin

Reggiana U19 wins by 2+

20%

Padova U19 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Reggiana U19 1+ goals

77%

Reggiana U19 2+ goals

43%

Reggiana U19 3+ goals

19%

Padova U19 1+ goals

72%

Padova U19 2+ goals

36%

Padova U19 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Reggiana U19 (draw refunded)

56%

Padova U19 (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reggiana U19 at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.55 · 85 matches

Padova U19 away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.74 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reggiana U19 attack 1.22 + Padova U19 defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.48

Padova U19 attack 0.98 + Reggiana U19 defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Reggiana U19 scores more

42%

level

25%

Padova U19 scores more

33%

Reggiana U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Reggiana U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff