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Kabuscorp vs ASA — Girabola 2013

Kabuscorp
Kabuscorp
FT
2 – 0
ASA
ASA
8/3/2013GirabolaGirabola · Round 19Estádio Municipal dos Coqueiros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Kabuscorp54%
×Draw29%
ASA17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kabuscorp
1.33
ASA
0.62

Kabuscorp creates 115% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 22 away

creates per match

Kabuscorp
1.31
ASA
0.41

allows per match

Kabuscorp
0.83
ASA
1.36

finishing

Kabuscorp+0.00on par
ASA+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kabuscorp ↓

ASA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Kabuscorp or draw
83%
Kabuscorp or ASA
71%
Draw or ASA
46%

Winning margin

Kabuscorp wins by 2+
26%
ASA wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Kabuscorp 1+ goals
74%
Kabuscorp 2+ goals
38%
Kabuscorp 3+ goals
15%
ASA 1+ goals
46%
ASA 2+ goals
13%
ASA 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Kabuscorp (draw refunded)
76%
ASA (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kabuscorp at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.83 · 70 matches

ASA away — creates 0.41, concedes 1.36 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kabuscorp attack 1.31 + ASA defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.33

ASA attack 0.41 + Kabuscorp defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Kabuscorp scores more
54%
level
29%
ASA scores more
17%

Kabuscorp at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Kabuscorp will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Girabola: Kabuscorp 2–0 ASA

Kabuscorp beat ASA 2-0 in Girabola on August 3, 2013.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal dos Coqueiros.