Regar-TadAZ vs Sardor Tursunzoda

Regar-TadAZ

Preview

12:00

Sardor Tursunzoda

11/7/2026

Vysshaya Liga · Round 22

53%

Regar-TadAZ

model favours

53%22%24%

1–1

likely score

60%

over 2.5 goals

60%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Regar-TadAZ53%

×Draw22%

Sardor Tursunzoda24%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Regar-TadAZExpected goals in this matchSardor Tursunzoda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.21

Regar-TadAZ

1.90

Sardor Tursunzoda

1.21

Regar-TadAZ creates 57% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 7 away

1.50

creates per match

1.43

0.98

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

Regar-TadAZ

1.50

Sardor Tursunzoda

1.43

allows per match

Regar-TadAZ

0.98

Sardor Tursunzoda

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Regar-TadAZ+0.00on par

Sardor Tursunzoda+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Regar-TadAZ ↓

Sardor Tursunzoda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Regar-TadAZ or draw

76%

Regar-TadAZ or Sardor Tursunzoda

78%

Draw or Sardor Tursunzoda

47%

Winning margin

Regar-TadAZ wins by 2+

31%

Sardor Tursunzoda wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Regar-TadAZ 1+ goals

85%

Regar-TadAZ 2+ goals

56%

Regar-TadAZ 3+ goals

29%

Sardor Tursunzoda 1+ goals

70%

Sardor Tursunzoda 2+ goals

34%

Sardor Tursunzoda 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Regar-TadAZ (draw refunded)

69%

Sardor Tursunzoda (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Regar-TadAZ at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.98 · 44 matches

Sardor Tursunzoda away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Regar-TadAZ attack 1.50 + Sardor Tursunzoda defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.90

Sardor Tursunzoda attack 1.43 + Regar-TadAZ defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Regar-TadAZ scores more

53%

level

22%

Sardor Tursunzoda scores more

24%

Regar-TadAZ at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Regar-TadAZ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form

Regar-TadAZ

WWWDW

Tursunzoda

LDLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff