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Referencia U20 vs Palmeiras U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Referencia U20
Referencia U20
Preview
18:00
Palmeiras U20
Palmeiras U20
8/21/2026Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · Round 13
57%
Palmeiras U20
model favours
21%22%57%

Palmeiras U20 have scored in 23 games running

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
56%
over 2.5 goals
55%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Referencia U2021%
×Draw22%
Palmeiras U2057%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Referencia U20
1.04
Palmeiras U20
1.88

Palmeiras U20 creates 81% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 27 away

creates per match

Referencia U20
1.35
Palmeiras U20
2.15

allows per match

Referencia U20
1.61
Palmeiras U20
0.74

finishing

Referencia U20+0.00on par
Palmeiras U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 56Under: 4456%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 55No: 4555%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Referencia U20 ↓

Palmeiras U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Referencia U20 or draw
43%
Referencia U20 or Palmeiras U20
78%
Draw or Palmeiras U20
79%

Winning margin

Referencia U20 wins by 2+
7%
Palmeiras U20 wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Referencia U20 1+ goals
65%
Referencia U20 2+ goals
28%
Referencia U20 3+ goals
9%
Palmeiras U20 1+ goals
85%
Palmeiras U20 2+ goals
56%
Palmeiras U20 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Referencia U20 (draw refunded)
27%
Palmeiras U20 (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Referencia U20 at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.61 · 23 matches

Palmeiras U20 away — creates 2.15, concedes 0.74 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Referencia U20 attack 1.35 + Palmeiras U20 defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.04

Palmeiras U20 attack 2.15 + Referencia U20 defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Referencia U20 scores more
21%
level
22%
Palmeiras U20 scores more
57%

Palmeiras U20 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Palmeiras U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Palmeiras U20 are unbeaten in 7 straight
  • Palmeiras U20 have won 4 of the last 4 meetings
  • 65% of Palmeiras U20’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Referencia U20 sit 43, Palmeiras U20 17 in the table
  • 31% of Palmeiras U20’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • 20% of Palmeiras U20’s goals come in the first 15 minutes

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
U20
LLLDL
U20
DDWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Referencia U20 host Palmeiras U20

August 21, 2026: Referencia U20 take on Palmeiras U20 in Paulista - U20. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.