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Referencia U20 vs Mauá U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Referencia U20
Referencia U20
Preview
18:00
Mauá U20
Mauá U20
9/12/2026Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · Round 15
48%
Referencia U20
model favours
48%25%27%

Mauá U20 score first in only 31% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
50%
over 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Referencia U2048%
×Draw25%
Mauá U2027%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Referencia U20
1.56
Mauá U20
1.11

Referencia U20 creates 41% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 18 away

creates per match

Referencia U20
1.35
Mauá U20
0.61

allows per match

Referencia U20
1.61
Mauá U20
1.78

finishing

Referencia U20+0.00on par
Mauá U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 50Over: 5050%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 53No: 4753%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Referencia U20 ↓

Mauá U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Referencia U20 or draw
73%
Referencia U20 or Mauá U20
75%
Draw or Mauá U20
52%

Winning margin

Referencia U20 wins by 2+
24%
Mauá U20 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Referencia U20 1+ goals
79%
Referencia U20 2+ goals
46%
Referencia U20 3+ goals
21%
Mauá U20 1+ goals
67%
Mauá U20 2+ goals
30%
Mauá U20 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Referencia U20 (draw refunded)
64%
Mauá U20 (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Referencia U20 at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.61 · 23 matches

Mauá U20 away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.78 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Referencia U20 attack 1.35 + Mauá U20 defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.56

Mauá U20 attack 0.61 + Referencia U20 defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Referencia U20 scores more
48%
level
25%
Mauá U20 scores more
27%

Referencia U20 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Referencia U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Referencia U20 sit 43, Mauá U20 23 in the table
  • Referencia U20 and Mauá U20 have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
U20
LLLDL
U20
LDLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Referencia U20 face Mauá U20 (Paulista - U20)

Paulista - U20 returns with Referencia U20 hosting Mauá U20. Match starts September 12, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.