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Red Lions vs Moyale Barracks — Super League 2026

Red Lions
Red Lions
Preview
12:30
Moyale Barracks
Moyale Barracks
9/5/2026Super LeagueSuper League · Round 13
Big match
42%
Red Lions
model favours
42%29%29%

90% of Moyale Barracks’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
64%
under 2.5 goals
42%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Red Lions42%
×Draw29%
Moyale Barracks29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Red Lions
1.19
Moyale Barracks
0.93

Red Lions creates 28% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 84 away

creates per match

Red Lions
0.88
Moyale Barracks
0.86

allows per match

Red Lions
1.00
Moyale Barracks
1.50

finishing

Red Lions+0.00on par
Moyale Barracks+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Red Lions ↓

Moyale Barracks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Red Lions or draw
71%
Red Lions or Moyale Barracks
71%
Draw or Moyale Barracks
58%

Winning margin

Red Lions wins by 2+
18%
Moyale Barracks wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Red Lions 1+ goals
70%
Red Lions 2+ goals
33%
Red Lions 3+ goals
12%
Moyale Barracks 1+ goals
61%
Moyale Barracks 2+ goals
24%
Moyale Barracks 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Red Lions (draw refunded)
59%
Moyale Barracks (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Red Lions at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.00 · 50 matches

Moyale Barracks away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.50 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Red Lions attack 0.88 + Moyale Barracks defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.19

Moyale Barracks attack 0.86 + Red Lions defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Red Lions scores more
42%
level
29%
Moyale Barracks scores more
29%

Red Lions at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Red Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in only 10% of Moyale Barracks’s matches
  • Moyale Barracks score first in only 30% of matches
  • Red Lions win just 17% against the top half (vs 45% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Lions
WLWL
Barracks
LDWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Red Lions face Moyale Barracks (Super League)

Super League returns with Red Lions hosting Moyale Barracks. Match starts September 5, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.