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Red Lions vs Karonga United — Super League 2026

Red Lions
Red Lions
FT
0 – 1
Karonga United
Karonga United
7/10/2021Super LeagueSuper League · Round 18Mpira Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Red Lions41%
×Draw30%
Karonga United29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Red Lions
1.15
Karonga United
0.90

Red Lions creates 28% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 83 away

creates per match

Red Lions
0.88
Karonga United
0.80

allows per match

Red Lions
1.00
Karonga United
1.42

finishing

Red Lions+0.00on par
Karonga United+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Red Lions ↓

Karonga United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Red Lions or draw
71%
Red Lions or Karonga United
70%
Draw or Karonga United
59%

Winning margin

Red Lions wins by 2+
18%
Karonga United wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Red Lions 1+ goals
68%
Red Lions 2+ goals
32%
Red Lions 3+ goals
11%
Karonga United 1+ goals
59%
Karonga United 2+ goals
23%
Karonga United 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Red Lions (draw refunded)
59%
Karonga United (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Red Lions at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.00 · 50 matches

Karonga United away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.42 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Red Lions attack 0.88 + Karonga United defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.15

Karonga United attack 0.80 + Red Lions defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Red Lions scores more
41%
level
30%
Karonga United scores more
29%

Red Lions at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Red Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Red Lions vs Karonga United

Karonga United beat Red Lions 1-0 in Super League on July 10, 2021.

The match was played at Mpira Stadium in Blantyre.