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Red Lions vs Ekhaya — Super League 2026

Red Lions
Red Lions
Preview
12:30
Ekhaya
Ekhaya
10/18/2026Super LeagueSuper League · Round 17
36%
Red Lions
model favours
36%31%33%

Red Lions win just 17% against the top half (vs 45% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
67%
under 2.5 goals
40%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Red Lions36%
×Draw31%
Ekhaya33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Red Lions
1.04
Ekhaya
0.97

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 50 home / 20 away

creates per match

Red Lions
0.88
Ekhaya
0.95

allows per match

Red Lions
1.00
Ekhaya
1.20

finishing

Red Lions+0.00on par
Ekhaya+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Red Lions ↓

Ekhaya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Red Lions or draw
67%
Red Lions or Ekhaya
69%
Draw or Ekhaya
64%

Winning margin

Red Lions wins by 2+
14%
Ekhaya wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Red Lions 1+ goals
65%
Red Lions 2+ goals
28%
Red Lions 3+ goals
9%
Ekhaya 1+ goals
62%
Ekhaya 2+ goals
25%
Ekhaya 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Red Lions (draw refunded)
53%
Ekhaya (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Red Lions at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.00 · 50 matches

Ekhaya away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.20 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Red Lions attack 0.88 + Ekhaya defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.04

Ekhaya attack 0.95 + Red Lions defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Red Lions scores more
36%
level
31%
Ekhaya scores more
33%

Red Lions at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Red Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Ekhaya win just 29% against the top half (vs 56% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Lions
WLWL
Ekhaya
DWDWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Red Lions vs Ekhaya — Match Preview

Red Lions face Ekhaya on October 18, 2026 in this Super League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.