Red Bull Salzburg 1–1 WSG Wattens: Result & Stats

Red Bull Salzburg

FT

1 – 1

WSG Wattens

5/22/2020

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Red Bull Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Red Bull Salzburg13%

×Draw13%

WSG Wattens74%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Red Bull SalzburgExpected goals in this matchWSG Wattens

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

3.53

Red Bull Salzburg

1.48

WSG Wattens

3.53

WSG Wattens creates 139% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 9 away

1.96

creates per match

5.33

1.73

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Red Bull Salzburg

1.96

WSG Wattens

5.33

allows per match

Red Bull Salzburg

1.73

WSG Wattens

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Red Bull Salzburg+0.00on par

WSG Wattens+0.00on par

Total goals

Over87
Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Red Bull Salzburg ↓

WSG Wattens →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–24%

0–35%

0–45%

1

1–01%

1–14%

1–27%

1–38%

1–47%

2

2–01%

2–13%

2–25%

2–36%

2–45%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–33%

3–43%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 76% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

87%13%3.5

72%28%4.5

53%47%

Double chance

Red Bull Salzburg or draw

26%

Red Bull Salzburg or WSG Wattens

87%

Draw or WSG Wattens

87%

Winning margin

Red Bull Salzburg wins by 2+

5%

WSG Wattens wins by 2+

56%

Team goals

Red Bull Salzburg 1+ goals

77%

Red Bull Salzburg 2+ goals

43%

Red Bull Salzburg 3+ goals

19%

WSG Wattens 1+ goals

97%

WSG Wattens 2+ goals

86%

WSG Wattens 3+ goals

66%

Draw no bet

Red Bull Salzburg (draw refunded)

15%

WSG Wattens (draw refunded)

85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Red Bull Salzburg at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.73 · 26 matches

WSG Wattens away — creates 5.33, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.96 + WSG Wattens defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.48

WSG Wattens attack 5.33 + Red Bull Salzburg defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 3.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Red Bull Salzburg scores more

13%

level

13%

WSG Wattens scores more

74%

WSG Wattens at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "WSG Wattens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff