Red Bull Salzburg 5–1 WSG Wattens: Result & Stats

Red Bull Salzburg

FT

5 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

WSG Wattens

Andreas Ulmer 82'

Takumi Minamino 56'

Masaya Okugawa 33'

Erling Braut Håland 9'

Patson Daka 3'

Stefan Hager 85'

12/7/2019

Bundesliga · Round 17Red Bull Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 113+ matches

Red Bull Salzburg65%

×Draw19%

WSG Wattens16%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Red Bull SalzburgExpected goals in this matchWSG Wattens

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.27

1.02

Red Bull Salzburg

2.27

WSG Wattens

1.02

Red Bull Salzburg creates 123% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 113 away

2.61

creates per match

1.20

0.85

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Red Bull Salzburg

2.61

WSG Wattens

1.20

allows per match

Red Bull Salzburg

0.85

WSG Wattens

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Red Bull Salzburg+0.00on par

WSG Wattens+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Red Bull Salzburg ↓

WSG Wattens →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Red Bull Salzburg or draw

84%

Red Bull Salzburg or WSG Wattens

81%

Draw or WSG Wattens

35%

Winning margin

Red Bull Salzburg wins by 2+

42%

WSG Wattens wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Red Bull Salzburg 1+ goals

90%

Red Bull Salzburg 2+ goals

66%

Red Bull Salzburg 3+ goals

39%

WSG Wattens 1+ goals

64%

WSG Wattens 2+ goals

27%

WSG Wattens 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Red Bull Salzburg (draw refunded)

80%

WSG Wattens (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Red Bull Salzburg at home — creates 2.61, concedes 0.85 · 133 matches

WSG Wattens away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.94 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Red Bull Salzburg attack 2.61 + WSG Wattens defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 2.27

WSG Wattens attack 1.20 + Red Bull Salzburg defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Red Bull Salzburg scores more

65%

level

19%

WSG Wattens scores more

16%

Red Bull Salzburg at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Red Bull Salzburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

Andreas Ulmer

Red Bull Salzburg · M

9.1

Match Events

3'

Patson Daka

9'

Erling Braut Håland↳ Masaya Okugawa

26'

Jérôme Onguene

33'

Masaya Okugawa

56'

Takumi Minamino↳ Andreas Ulmer

59'

Majeed Ashimeru← Takumi Minamino

61'

Florian Mader← Lukas Grgić

65'

Julian Gölles← Sebastian Santin

66'

Hee Chan Hwang← Erling Braut Håland

76'

Enock Mwepu← Patson Daka

77'

Zlatko Dedič← Kelvin Yeboah

81'

Florian Rieder

82'

Andreas Ulmer

83'

André Ramalho

85'

Stefan Hager↳ Benjamin Pranter

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RedWSG

Overview

69%Possession31%

19Total Shots10

5Corners2

12Fouls13

Shots

19Total Shots10

8On Target1

8Off Target4

3Blocked5

15Inside Box7

4Outside Box3

Passing

69%Possession31%

599Total Passes265

516Accurate Passes153

86%Pass Accuracy58%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls13

2Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1