Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg — Bundesliga 2018

Red Bull Salzburg
Red Bull Salzburg
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
TSV Hartberg
TSV Hartberg
3/17/2024BundesligaBundesliga · Championship Round - 1Red Bull Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 128+ matches

Red Bull Salzburg61%
×Draw20%
TSV Hartberg19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Red Bull Salzburg
2.19
TSV Hartberg
1.14

Red Bull Salzburg creates 92% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 131 away

creates per match

Red Bull Salzburg
2.62
TSV Hartberg
1.40

allows per match

Red Bull Salzburg
0.88
TSV Hartberg
1.76

finishing

Red Bull Salzburg+0.00on par
TSV Hartberg+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Red Bull Salzburg ↓

TSV Hartberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Red Bull Salzburg or draw
81%
Red Bull Salzburg or TSV Hartberg
80%
Draw or TSV Hartberg
39%

Winning margin

Red Bull Salzburg wins by 2+
38%
TSV Hartberg wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Red Bull Salzburg 1+ goals
89%
Red Bull Salzburg 2+ goals
64%
Red Bull Salzburg 3+ goals
37%
TSV Hartberg 1+ goals
68%
TSV Hartberg 2+ goals
32%
TSV Hartberg 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Red Bull Salzburg (draw refunded)
76%
TSV Hartberg (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Red Bull Salzburg at home — creates 2.62, concedes 0.88 · 128 matches

TSV Hartberg away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.76 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Red Bull Salzburg attack 2.62 + TSV Hartberg defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 2.19

TSV Hartberg attack 1.40 + Red Bull Salzburg defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Red Bull Salzburg scores more
61%
level
20%
TSV Hartberg scores more
19%

Red Bull Salzburg at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Red Bull Salzburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bundesliga: Red Bull Salzburg 5–1 TSV Hartberg

Red Bull Salzburg beat TSV Hartberg 5-1 in Bundesliga on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at Red Bull Arena in Wals-Siezenheim.