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Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz — Bundesliga 2018

Red Bull Salzburg
Red Bull Salzburg
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Sturm Graz
Sturm Graz
4/28/2024BundesligaBundesliga · Championship Round - 7Red Bull Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 128+ matches

Red Bull Salzburg53%
×Draw22%
Sturm Graz25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Red Bull Salzburg
1.91
Sturm Graz
1.25

Red Bull Salzburg creates 53% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 129 away

creates per match

Red Bull Salzburg
2.62
Sturm Graz
1.61

allows per match

Red Bull Salzburg
0.88
Sturm Graz
1.20

finishing

Red Bull Salzburg+0.00on par
Sturm Graz+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Red Bull Salzburg ↓

Sturm Graz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Red Bull Salzburg or draw
75%
Red Bull Salzburg or Sturm Graz
78%
Draw or Sturm Graz
47%

Winning margin

Red Bull Salzburg wins by 2+
30%
Sturm Graz wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Red Bull Salzburg 1+ goals
85%
Red Bull Salzburg 2+ goals
57%
Red Bull Salzburg 3+ goals
30%
Sturm Graz 1+ goals
71%
Sturm Graz 2+ goals
36%
Sturm Graz 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Red Bull Salzburg (draw refunded)
68%
Sturm Graz (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Red Bull Salzburg at home — creates 2.62, concedes 0.88 · 128 matches

Sturm Graz away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.20 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Red Bull Salzburg attack 2.62 + Sturm Graz defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.91

Sturm Graz attack 1.61 + Red Bull Salzburg defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Red Bull Salzburg scores more
53%
level
22%
Sturm Graz scores more
25%

Red Bull Salzburg at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Red Bull Salzburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bundesliga: Red Bull Salzburg 2–2 Sturm Graz

Red Bull Salzburg and Sturm Graz drew 2-2 in Bundesliga on April 28, 2024.

The match was played at Red Bull Arena in Wals-Siezenheim.