Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz — Bundesliga 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 128+ matches
Red Bull Salzburg53%
Sturm Graz25%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Red Bull Salzburg creates 53% more chances
Season form · 128 home / 129 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over61
- Under39
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes61
- No39
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Red Bull Salzburg ↓
Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Red Bull Salzburg at home — creates 2.62, concedes 0.88 · 128 matches
Sturm Graz away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.20 · 129 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Red Bull Salzburg attack 2.62 + Sturm Graz defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.91
Sturm Graz attack 1.61 + Red Bull Salzburg defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.25
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 53%?"
Red Bull Salzburg at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 53% does not mean "Red Bull Salzburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Sturm Graz substitutes
If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Red Bull Salzburg host Sturm Graz on Sunday, 4 April 2021 at 15:00. The match is part of the Bundesliga 2018/2019 season.
Bundesliga: Red Bull Salzburg 3–1 Sturm Graz
Red Bull Salzburg beat Sturm Graz 3-1 in Bundesliga on April 4, 2021.
Goals: P. Daka (3', 5', 11'), A. Dante (13').
Red Bull Salzburg controlled possession (54%) and registered 16 shots to 11.
The match was played at Red Bull Arena in Wals-Siezenheim.