Red Bull Salzburg 3–1 Sturm Graz: Result & Stats

Red Bull Salzburg

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Sturm Graz

D. Szoboszlai 71'

M. Dabour 67'

F. Gulbrandsen 53'

M. Lema 40'

4/14/2019

Bundesliga · Championship Round - 3Red Bull Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 127+ matches

Red Bull Salzburg53%

×Draw22%

Sturm Graz25%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Red Bull SalzburgExpected goals in this matchSturm Graz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

1.24

Red Bull Salzburg

1.91

Sturm Graz

1.24

Red Bull Salzburg creates 54% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 129 away

2.62

creates per match

1.61

0.87

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Red Bull Salzburg

2.62

Sturm Graz

1.61

allows per match

Red Bull Salzburg

0.87

Sturm Graz

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Red Bull Salzburg+0.00on par

Sturm Graz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Red Bull Salzburg ↓

Sturm Graz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Red Bull Salzburg or draw

75%

Red Bull Salzburg or Sturm Graz

78%

Draw or Sturm Graz

47%

Winning margin

Red Bull Salzburg wins by 2+

30%

Sturm Graz wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Red Bull Salzburg 1+ goals

85%

Red Bull Salzburg 2+ goals

57%

Red Bull Salzburg 3+ goals

30%

Sturm Graz 1+ goals

71%

Sturm Graz 2+ goals

35%

Sturm Graz 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Red Bull Salzburg (draw refunded)

68%

Sturm Graz (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Red Bull Salzburg at home — creates 2.62, concedes 0.87 · 127 matches

Sturm Graz away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.20 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Red Bull Salzburg attack 2.62 + Sturm Graz defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.91

Sturm Graz attack 1.61 + Red Bull Salzburg defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Red Bull Salzburg scores more

53%

level

22%

Sturm Graz scores more

25%

Red Bull Salzburg at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Red Bull Salzburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

D. Szoboszlai

Red Bull Salzburg · M

8.2

Match Events

25'

35'

38'

40'

53'

F. Gulbrandsen↳ D. Szoboszlai

58'

M. Pongracic← J. Onguéné

63'

Lukas Spendlhofer

67'

M. Dabour

70'

P. Huspek← J. Jantscher

71'

D. Szoboszlai↳ A. Ulmer

74'

T. Koch← S. Lovric

76'

Tobias Koch

77'

E. Eze← L. Grozurek

79'

E. Mwepu← M. Pongracic

85'

C. Leitgeb← T. Minamino

87'

Munas Dabbur

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RedSturm

Overview

64%Possession36%

23Total Shots6

5Corners0

15Fouls15

Shots

23Total Shots6

12On Target4

6Off Target2

5Blocked0

12Inside Box4

11Outside Box2

Passing

64%Possession36%

608Total Passes338

533Accurate Passes250

88%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

3Saves9

Discipline

15Fouls15

2Yellow Cards4