Red Bull Salzburg vs Ried: Preview & Prediction

Red Bull Salzburg

Preview

16:00

Ried

1/30/2027

Bundesliga · Round 18Red Bull Arena

Big match

67%

Red Bull Salzburg

model favours

67%19%14%

Ried score first in only 20% of matches

brightest fact of this match

2–0

likely score

58%

over 2.5 goals

51%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Red Bull Salzburg67%

×Draw19%

Ried14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Red Bull SalzburgExpected goals in this matchRied

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

0.86

Red Bull Salzburg

2.17

Ried

0.86

Red Bull Salzburg creates 152% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 65 away

2.62

creates per match

0.85

0.88

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Red Bull Salzburg

2.62

Ried

0.85

allows per match

Red Bull Salzburg

0.88

Ried

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Red Bull Salzburg+0.00on par

Ried+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Red Bull Salzburg ↓

Ried →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Red Bull Salzburg or draw

86%

Red Bull Salzburg or Ried

81%

Draw or Ried

33%

Winning margin

Red Bull Salzburg wins by 2+

43%

Ried wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Red Bull Salzburg 1+ goals

89%

Red Bull Salzburg 2+ goals

64%

Red Bull Salzburg 3+ goals

36%

Ried 1+ goals

58%

Ried 2+ goals

21%

Ried 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Red Bull Salzburg (draw refunded)

83%

Ried (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Red Bull Salzburg at home — creates 2.62, concedes 0.88 · 128 matches

Ried away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.71 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Red Bull Salzburg attack 2.62 + Ried defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.17

Ried attack 0.85 + Red Bull Salzburg defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Red Bull Salzburg scores more

67%

level

19%

Ried scores more

14%

Red Bull Salzburg at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Red Bull Salzburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Red Bull Salzburg have won 6 of the last 8 meetings
Red Bull Salzburg raise their game against the top half — 67% wins vs the upper half, only 43% vs the lower
68% of Red Bull Salzburg’s matches go over 2.5 goals
Both sides lean high-scoring (68% and 60% over 2.5)
Top-of-the-table clash — Red Bull Salzburg 3 vs Ried 4
Ried win just 21% against the top half (vs 48% against the bottom)