Red Bull Salzburg 2–3 Lask Linz: Result & Stats

Red Bull Salzburg

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Lask Linz

Enock Mwepu 81'

Masaya Okugawa 40'

Dominik Frieser 56', 20'

James Holland 25'

2/14/2020

Bundesliga · Round 19Red Bull Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 127+ matches

Red Bull Salzburg54%

×Draw22%

Lask Linz23%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Red Bull SalzburgExpected goals in this matchLask Linz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.19

Red Bull Salzburg

1.92

Lask Linz

1.19

Red Bull Salzburg creates 61% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 129 away

2.62

creates per match

1.51

0.87

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Red Bull Salzburg

2.62

Lask Linz

1.51

allows per match

Red Bull Salzburg

0.87

Lask Linz

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Red Bull Salzburg+0.00on par

Lask Linz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Red Bull Salzburg ↓

Lask Linz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Red Bull Salzburg or draw

77%

Red Bull Salzburg or Lask Linz

78%

Draw or Lask Linz

46%

Winning margin

Red Bull Salzburg wins by 2+

31%

Lask Linz wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Red Bull Salzburg 1+ goals

85%

Red Bull Salzburg 2+ goals

57%

Red Bull Salzburg 3+ goals

30%

Lask Linz 1+ goals

70%

Lask Linz 2+ goals

33%

Lask Linz 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Red Bull Salzburg (draw refunded)

70%

Lask Linz (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Red Bull Salzburg at home — creates 2.62, concedes 0.87 · 127 matches

Lask Linz away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.22 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Red Bull Salzburg attack 2.62 + Lask Linz defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.92

Lask Linz attack 1.51 + Red Bull Salzburg defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Red Bull Salzburg scores more

54%

level

22%

Lask Linz scores more

23%

Red Bull Salzburg at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Red Bull Salzburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

Dominik Frieser

Lask Linz · F

8.2

Match Events

20'

Dominik Frieser

21'

André Ramalho

25'

James Holland↳ Peter Michorl

35'

Enock Mwepu

40'

Masaya Okugawa↳ Zlatko Junuzović

41'

James Holland

51'

Petar Filipovic

56'

Dominik Frieser↳ Marko Raguž

59'

Mergim Berisha← Patrick Farkas

61'

Philipp Wiesinger

64'

Marvin Potzmann← Petar Filipovic

65'

Dominik Szoboszlai← André Ramalho

65'

Husein Balić← Dominik Frieser

72'

Maximilian Wöber

78'

Sekou Koita← Patson Daka

79'

Klauss← Marko Raguž

81'

Enock Mwepu↳ Andreas Ulmer

83'

Reinhold Ranftl

86'

Husein Balić

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RedLask

Overview

57%Possession43%

15Total Shots9

8Corners5

18Fouls21

Shots

15Total Shots9

7On Target4

7Off Target4

1Blocked1

11Inside Box5

4Outside Box4

Passing

57%Possession43%

414Total Passes311

252Accurate Passes168

61%Pass Accuracy54%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

18Fouls21

3Yellow Cards5

1Offsides0