Red Bull Salzburg 2–1 Lask Linz: Result & Stats

Red Bull Salzburg

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Lask Linz

F. Gulbrandsen 37'

E. Håland 13'

G. Trauner 49'

5/12/2019

Bundesliga · Championship Round - 8Red Bull Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 127+ matches

Red Bull Salzburg54%

×Draw22%

Lask Linz23%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Red Bull SalzburgExpected goals in this matchLask Linz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.19

Red Bull Salzburg

1.92

Lask Linz

1.19

Red Bull Salzburg creates 61% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 129 away

2.62

creates per match

1.51

0.87

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Red Bull Salzburg

2.62

Lask Linz

1.51

allows per match

Red Bull Salzburg

0.87

Lask Linz

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Red Bull Salzburg+0.00on par

Lask Linz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Red Bull Salzburg ↓

Lask Linz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Red Bull Salzburg or draw

77%

Red Bull Salzburg or Lask Linz

78%

Draw or Lask Linz

46%

Winning margin

Red Bull Salzburg wins by 2+

31%

Lask Linz wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Red Bull Salzburg 1+ goals

85%

Red Bull Salzburg 2+ goals

57%

Red Bull Salzburg 3+ goals

30%

Lask Linz 1+ goals

70%

Lask Linz 2+ goals

33%

Lask Linz 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Red Bull Salzburg (draw refunded)

70%

Lask Linz (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Red Bull Salzburg at home — creates 2.62, concedes 0.87 · 127 matches

Lask Linz away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.22 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Red Bull Salzburg attack 2.62 + Lask Linz defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.92

Lask Linz attack 1.51 + Red Bull Salzburg defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Red Bull Salzburg scores more

54%

level

22%

Lask Linz scores more

23%

Red Bull Salzburg at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Red Bull Salzburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

P. Farkas

Red Bull Salzburg · D

8.2

Match Events

13'

E. Håland↳ P. Farkas

37'

F. Gulbrandsen

49'

G. Trauner↳ P. Michorl

62'

Klauss← S. Tetteh

64'

Philipp Wiesinger

69'

P. Daka← E. Håland

76'

C. Leitgeb← F. Gulbrandsen

77'

F. Jamnig← D. Frieser

88'

T. Minamino← Z. Junuzović

89'

Y. Otubanjo← E. Pogatetz

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RedLask

Overview

61%Possession39%

6Total Shots17

4Corners7

11Fouls12

Shots

6Total Shots17

4On Target5

1Off Target6

1Blocked6

3Inside Box10

3Outside Box7

Passing

61%Possession39%

566Total Passes344

462Accurate Passes242

82%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls12

0Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1