Red Bull Salzburg vs BSC Young Boys

Red Bull Salzburg

Canc

15:00

BSC Young Boys

1/17/2022

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Red Bull Salzburg43%

×Draw22%

BSC Young Boys35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Red Bull SalzburgExpected goals in this matchBSC Young Boys

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.70

Red Bull Salzburg

1.88

BSC Young Boys

1.70

Red Bull Salzburg creates 11% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 5 away

1.95

creates per match

1.60

1.79

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Red Bull Salzburg

1.95

BSC Young Boys

1.60

allows per match

Red Bull Salzburg

1.79

BSC Young Boys

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Red Bull Salzburg+0.00on par

BSC Young Boys+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Red Bull Salzburg ↓

BSC Young Boys →

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Red Bull Salzburg or draw

65%

Red Bull Salzburg or BSC Young Boys

78%

Draw or BSC Young Boys

57%

Winning margin

Red Bull Salzburg wins by 2+

23%

BSC Young Boys wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Red Bull Salzburg 1+ goals

85%

Red Bull Salzburg 2+ goals

56%

Red Bull Salzburg 3+ goals

29%

BSC Young Boys 1+ goals

82%

BSC Young Boys 2+ goals

51%

BSC Young Boys 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Red Bull Salzburg (draw refunded)

55%

BSC Young Boys (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Red Bull Salzburg at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.79 · 19 matches

BSC Young Boys away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.95 + BSC Young Boys defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.88

BSC Young Boys attack 1.60 + Red Bull Salzburg defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Red Bull Salzburg scores more

43%

level

22%

BSC Young Boys scores more

35%

Red Bull Salzburg at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Red Bull Salzburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff