Red Arrows 4–1 Green Buffaloes: Result & Stats

Red Arrows

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Green Buffaloes

11/11/2023

Super League · Round 12Sunset Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Red Arrows51%

×Draw29%

Green Buffaloes21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Red ArrowsExpected goals in this matchGreen Buffaloes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

0.73

Red Arrows

1.32

Green Buffaloes

0.73

Red Arrows creates 81% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 110 away

1.51

creates per match

0.82

0.64

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Red Arrows

1.51

Green Buffaloes

0.82

allows per match

Red Arrows

0.64

Green Buffaloes

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Red Arrows+0.00on par

Green Buffaloes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Red Arrows ↓

Green Buffaloes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Red Arrows or draw

79%

Red Arrows or Green Buffaloes

71%

Draw or Green Buffaloes

49%

Winning margin

Red Arrows wins by 2+

24%

Green Buffaloes wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Red Arrows 1+ goals

73%

Red Arrows 2+ goals

38%

Red Arrows 3+ goals

15%

Green Buffaloes 1+ goals

52%

Green Buffaloes 2+ goals

17%

Green Buffaloes 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Red Arrows (draw refunded)

71%

Green Buffaloes (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Red Arrows at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.64 · 111 matches

Green Buffaloes away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.13 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Red Arrows attack 1.51 + Green Buffaloes defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.32

Green Buffaloes attack 0.82 + Red Arrows defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Red Arrows scores more

51%

level

29%

Green Buffaloes scores more

21%

Red Arrows at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Red Arrows will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff