Recreativo do Libolo 0–0 Petro de Luanda

Recreativo do Libolo

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Petro de Luanda

12/15/2023

Girabola · Round 8Estádio Municipal de Calulo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Recreativo do Libolo25%

×Draw28%

Petro de Luanda47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Recreativo do LiboloExpected goals in this matchPetro de Luanda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.86

1.31

Recreativo do Libolo

0.86

Petro de Luanda

1.31

Petro de Luanda creates 52% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 109 away

1.12

creates per match

1.75

0.87

allows per match

0.61

creates per match

Recreativo do Libolo

1.12

Petro de Luanda

1.75

allows per match

Recreativo do Libolo

0.87

Petro de Luanda

0.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Recreativo do Libolo+0.00on par

Petro de Luanda+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Recreativo do Libolo ↓

Petro de Luanda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–115%

0–210%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Recreativo do Libolo or draw

53%

Recreativo do Libolo or Petro de Luanda

72%

Draw or Petro de Luanda

75%

Winning margin

Recreativo do Libolo wins by 2+

8%

Petro de Luanda wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Recreativo do Libolo 1+ goals

58%

Recreativo do Libolo 2+ goals

21%

Recreativo do Libolo 3+ goals

6%

Petro de Luanda 1+ goals

73%

Petro de Luanda 2+ goals

38%

Petro de Luanda 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Recreativo do Libolo (draw refunded)

34%

Petro de Luanda (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Recreativo do Libolo at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.87 · 110 matches

Petro de Luanda away — creates 1.75, concedes 0.61 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Recreativo do Libolo attack 1.12 + Petro de Luanda defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.86

Petro de Luanda attack 1.75 + Recreativo do Libolo defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Recreativo do Libolo scores more

25%

level

28%

Petro de Luanda scores more

47%

Petro de Luanda at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Petro de Luanda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff