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Real Zaragoza II vs Borja — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Real Zaragoza II
Real Zaragoza II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Borja
Borja
9/8/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 3Ciudad Deportiva del Real Zaragoza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Real Zaragoza II60%
×Draw23%
Borja17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Zaragoza II
1.77
Borja
0.82

Real Zaragoza II creates 116% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 62 away

creates per match

Real Zaragoza II
2.16
Borja
0.98

allows per match

Real Zaragoza II
0.66
Borja
1.37

finishing

Real Zaragoza II+0.00on par
Borja+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Zaragoza II ↓

Borja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Real Zaragoza II or draw
83%
Real Zaragoza II or Borja
77%
Draw or Borja
40%

Winning margin

Real Zaragoza II wins by 2+
34%
Borja wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Real Zaragoza II 1+ goals
83%
Real Zaragoza II 2+ goals
53%
Real Zaragoza II 3+ goals
26%
Borja 1+ goals
56%
Borja 2+ goals
20%
Borja 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Real Zaragoza II (draw refunded)
78%
Borja (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Zaragoza II at home — creates 2.16, concedes 0.66 · 44 matches

Borja away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.37 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Zaragoza II attack 2.16 + Borja defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.77

Borja attack 0.98 + Real Zaragoza II defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Real Zaragoza II scores more
60%
level
23%
Borja scores more
17%

Real Zaragoza II at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Real Zaragoza II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Real Zaragoza II 1 – 1 Borja

Real Zaragoza II and Borja drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on September 8, 2019.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva del Real Zaragoza in Cuarte de Huerva.