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Real vs Oliveira Hospital — Liga 3 2021

Real
Real
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Oliveira Hospital
Oliveira Hospital
3/20/2022Liga 3Liga 3 · Relegation Round - 1Estádio do Real SC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Real41%
×Draw28%
Oliveira Hospital30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real
1.25
Oliveira Hospital
1.03

Real creates 21% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 56 away

creates per match

Real
0.93
Oliveira Hospital
0.93

allows per match

Real
1.14
Oliveira Hospital
1.57

finishing

Real+0.00on par
Oliveira Hospital+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real ↓

Oliveira Hospital →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Real or draw
70%
Real or Oliveira Hospital
72%
Draw or Oliveira Hospital
59%

Winning margin

Real wins by 2+
18%
Oliveira Hospital wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Real 1+ goals
71%
Real 2+ goals
36%
Real 3+ goals
13%
Oliveira Hospital 1+ goals
64%
Oliveira Hospital 2+ goals
28%
Oliveira Hospital 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Real (draw refunded)
58%
Oliveira Hospital (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.14 · 28 matches

Oliveira Hospital away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.57 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real attack 0.93 + Oliveira Hospital defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.25

Oliveira Hospital attack 0.93 + Real defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Real scores more
41%
level
28%
Oliveira Hospital scores more
30%

Real at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Real will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga 3: Real 1–1 Oliveira Hospital

Real and Oliveira Hospital drew 1-1 in Liga 3 on March 20, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio do Real SC in Queluz.