Real Valladolid II 3–0 Salamanca UDS

Real Valladolid II

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Salamanca UDS

Mario Soberón 67'

Miguel De la Fuente 59' (pen), 18'

12/14/2019

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 17Campo 2 Anexos del José Zorrilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Real Valladolid II62%

×Draw22%

Salamanca UDS16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Valladolid IIExpected goals in this matchSalamanca UDS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

0.85

Real Valladolid II

1.90

Salamanca UDS

0.85

Real Valladolid II creates 124% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 15 away

2.07

creates per match

1.00

0.71

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Real Valladolid II

2.07

Salamanca UDS

1.00

allows per match

Real Valladolid II

0.71

Salamanca UDS

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Valladolid II+0.00on par

Salamanca UDS+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Valladolid II ↓

Salamanca UDS →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Real Valladolid II or draw

84%

Real Valladolid II or Salamanca UDS

78%

Draw or Salamanca UDS

38%

Winning margin

Real Valladolid II wins by 2+

37%

Salamanca UDS wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Real Valladolid II 1+ goals

85%

Real Valladolid II 2+ goals

56%

Real Valladolid II 3+ goals

29%

Salamanca UDS 1+ goals

57%

Salamanca UDS 2+ goals

21%

Salamanca UDS 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Real Valladolid II (draw refunded)

79%

Salamanca UDS (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Valladolid II at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

Salamanca UDS away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Valladolid II attack 2.07 + Salamanca UDS defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.90

Salamanca UDS attack 1.00 + Real Valladolid II defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Real Valladolid II scores more

62%

level

22%

Salamanca UDS scores more

16%

Real Valladolid II at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Real Valladolid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

Miguel De la Fuente

55'

Hugo Díaz← Rafa Mella

59'

Miguel De la FuentePenalty

65'

Mario Soberón← Víctor García

67'

Mario Soberón

69'

Giovanni← Edu Ubis

70'

Pablo Muñoz← Carlos Doncel

73'

Álex Altube← U. Torres

81'

G. Mancuso← Diego Alende

Real

Salamanca

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Manager: Baraja

65'▲Mario Soberón←▼Víctor García

70'▲Pablo Muñoz←▼Carlos Doncel

81'▲G. Mancuso←▼Diego Alende

Real Valladolid II substitutes

SoberónMuñozMancusoCamposVilarrasaSeguraHacen

Manager: Aitor Larrazábal

55'▲Hugo Díaz←▼Rafa Mella

69'▲Giovanni←▼Edu Ubis

73'▲Álex Altube←▼U. Torres

Salamanca UDS substitutes

DíazGiovanniAltubeSánchezȚîrleaLópezChiapas