Real Valladolid II 1–1 Langreo: Result & Stats

Real Valladolid II

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Langreo

Fran Álvarez 28'

Allyson 21'

1/23/2021

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 11Campo 1 Anexos del José Zorrilla hierba natural

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Real Valladolid II40%

×Draw27%

Langreo32%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Valladolid IIExpected goals in this matchLangreo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.13

Real Valladolid II

1.30

Langreo

1.13

Real Valladolid II creates 15% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 27 away

1.20

creates per match

0.78

1.47

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Real Valladolid II

1.20

Langreo

0.78

allows per match

Real Valladolid II

1.47

Langreo

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Valladolid II+0.00on par

Langreo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Valladolid II ↓

Langreo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Real Valladolid II or draw

68%

Real Valladolid II or Langreo

73%

Draw or Langreo

60%

Winning margin

Real Valladolid II wins by 2+

18%

Langreo wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Real Valladolid II 1+ goals

73%

Real Valladolid II 2+ goals

37%

Real Valladolid II 3+ goals

14%

Langreo 1+ goals

68%

Langreo 2+ goals

31%

Langreo 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Real Valladolid II (draw refunded)

56%

Langreo (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Valladolid II at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.47 · 30 matches

Langreo away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.41 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Valladolid II attack 1.20 + Langreo defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.30

Langreo attack 0.78 + Real Valladolid II defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Real Valladolid II scores more

40%

level

27%

Langreo scores more

32%

Real Valladolid II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Real Valladolid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

Allyson

28'

Fran Álvarez

54'

Palomeque← Lucas Freitas

70'

Mikel Carro← Oriol Rey

70'

Jesús Torres← Paulo Vitor

77'

Adrián Llano← Allyson

80'

Elliot Gómez← Víctor Socorro

88'

Abel Bretones← Jorge Hernández

Real

Langreo

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: Baraja

54'▲Palomeque←▼Lucas Freitas

70'▲Mikel Carro←▼Oriol Rey

70'▲Jesús Torres←▼Paulo Vitor

80'▲Elliot Gómez←▼Víctor Socorro

Real Valladolid II substitutes

PalomequeCarroTorresGómezPérezMarotoIsailovicGarcía

Manager: Ángel Rodríguez

77'▲Adrián Llano←▼Allyson

88'▲Abel Bretones←▼Jorge Hernández

Langreo substitutes

LlanoBretonesEbeaDennisShinMvondoMerouaniStamboulidisMéndez

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Real Valladolid II 1–1 Langreo

Real Valladolid II and Langreo drew 1-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on January 23, 2021.

Goals: Allyson (21'), Fran Álvarez (28').

The match was played at Campo 1 Anexos del José Zorrilla hierba natural in Valladolid.

Real Valladolid II vs Langreo — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Real Valladolid II 1–1 Langreo