Real Valladolid II 1–0 Cultural Leonesa

Real Valladolid II

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Cultural Leonesa

Víctor García 35'

12/1/2019

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 15Campo 1 Anexos del José Zorrilla hierba natural

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Real Valladolid II53%

×Draw24%

Cultural Leonesa23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Valladolid IIExpected goals in this matchCultural Leonesa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.02

Real Valladolid II

1.70

Cultural Leonesa

1.02

Real Valladolid II creates 67% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 15 away

2.07

creates per match

1.33

0.71

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Real Valladolid II

2.07

Cultural Leonesa

1.33

allows per match

Real Valladolid II

0.71

Cultural Leonesa

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Valladolid II+0.00on par

Cultural Leonesa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Valladolid II ↓

Cultural Leonesa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Real Valladolid II or draw

77%

Real Valladolid II or Cultural Leonesa

76%

Draw or Cultural Leonesa

47%

Winning margin

Real Valladolid II wins by 2+

29%

Cultural Leonesa wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Real Valladolid II 1+ goals

82%

Real Valladolid II 2+ goals

51%

Real Valladolid II 3+ goals

24%

Cultural Leonesa 1+ goals

64%

Cultural Leonesa 2+ goals

27%

Cultural Leonesa 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Real Valladolid II (draw refunded)

70%

Cultural Leonesa (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Valladolid II at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

Cultural Leonesa away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Valladolid II attack 2.07 + Cultural Leonesa defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.70

Cultural Leonesa attack 1.33 + Real Valladolid II defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Real Valladolid II scores more

53%

level

24%

Cultural Leonesa scores more

23%

Real Valladolid II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Real Valladolid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

G. Mancuso← Jaime Sánchez

35'

Víctor García

58'

Sergio Benito← Julián Luque

62'

Dani Pichín← Sergio Marcos

72'

Ignasi Vilarrasa← Carlos Doncel

80'

Juan Segura← Kike Pérez

81'

Augusto Galvan← R. Fernández

Real

Cultural

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Baraja

32'▲G. Mancuso←▼Jaime Sánchez

72'▲Ignasi Vilarrasa←▼Carlos Doncel

80'▲Juan Segura←▼Kike Pérez

Real Valladolid II substitutes

MancusoVilarrasaSeguraCamposSoberónGonzálezMuñoz

Manager: José Manuel Aira

58'▲Sergio Benito←▼Julián Luque

62'▲Dani Pichín←▼Sergio Marcos

81'▲Augusto Galvan←▼R. Fernández

Cultural Leonesa substitutes

BenitoPichínGalvanMartínezMontesEstellésGiffard

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Real Valladolid II 1–0 Cultural Leonesa

Real Valladolid II beat Cultural Leonesa 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on December 1, 2019.

Goals: Víctor García (35').

The match was played at Campo 1 Anexos del José Zorrilla hierba natural in Valladolid.

Real Valladolid II vs Cultural Leonesa — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Real Valladolid II 1–0 Cultural Leonesa