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Real Unión vs Unionistas de Salamanca — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Real Unión
Real Unión
CANC
00:00
Unionistas de Salamanca
Unionistas de Salamanca
3/29/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 31Estadio Gal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Real Unión43%
×Draw26%
Unionistas de Salamanca31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Unión
1.44
Unionistas de Salamanca
1.19

Real Unión creates 21% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 13 away

creates per match

Real Unión
1.26
Unionistas de Salamanca
1.31

allows per match

Real Unión
1.07
Unionistas de Salamanca
1.62

finishing

Real Unión+0.00on par
Unionistas de Salamanca+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Unión ↓

Unionistas de Salamanca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Real Unión or draw
69%
Real Unión or Unionistas de Salamanca
74%
Draw or Unionistas de Salamanca
57%

Winning margin

Real Unión wins by 2+
21%
Unionistas de Salamanca wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Real Unión 1+ goals
76%
Real Unión 2+ goals
42%
Real Unión 3+ goals
18%
Unionistas de Salamanca 1+ goals
70%
Unionistas de Salamanca 2+ goals
33%
Unionistas de Salamanca 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Real Unión (draw refunded)
58%
Unionistas de Salamanca (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Unión at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.07 · 46 matches

Unionistas de Salamanca away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Unión attack 1.26 + Unionistas de Salamanca defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.44

Unionistas de Salamanca attack 1.31 + Real Unión defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Real Unión scores more
43%
level
26%
Unionistas de Salamanca scores more
31%

Real Unión at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Real Unión will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Real Unión host Unionistas de Salamanca

March 29, 2020: Real Unión take on Unionistas de Salamanca in Primera División RFEF - Group 2. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Real Unión host Unionistas de Salamanca at Estadio Gal.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.