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Real Unión vs Racing Ferrol — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Real Unión
Real Unión
Preview
15:00
Racing Ferrol
Racing Ferrol
3/28/2027Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 30Stadium Gal
38%
Real Unión
model favours
38%28%33%

Real Unión score first in only 8% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
60%
under 2.5 goals
47%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Real Unión38%
×Draw28%
Racing Ferrol33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Unión
1.20
Racing Ferrol
1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 83 away

creates per match

Real Unión
1.46
Racing Ferrol
1.10

allows per match

Real Unión
1.11
Racing Ferrol
0.93

finishing

Real Unión+0.00on par
Racing Ferrol+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Unión ↓

Racing Ferrol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Real Unión or draw
67%
Real Unión or Racing Ferrol
72%
Draw or Racing Ferrol
62%

Winning margin

Real Unión wins by 2+
16%
Racing Ferrol wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Real Unión 1+ goals
70%
Real Unión 2+ goals
34%
Real Unión 3+ goals
12%
Racing Ferrol 1+ goals
67%
Racing Ferrol 2+ goals
30%
Racing Ferrol 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Real Unión (draw refunded)
53%
Racing Ferrol (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Unión at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.11 · 57 matches

Racing Ferrol away — creates 1.10, concedes 0.93 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Unión attack 1.46 + Racing Ferrol defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.20

Racing Ferrol attack 1.10 + Real Unión defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Real Unión scores more
38%
level
28%
Racing Ferrol scores more
33%

Real Unión at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Real Unión will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 79% of Real Unión’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Real Unión have scored in 7 games running

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Unión
WLDLW
Ferrol
LDDDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Real Unión face Racing Ferrol (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 returns with Real Unión hosting Racing Ferrol. Match starts March 28, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Real Unión host Racing Ferrol at Stadium Gal.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.