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Real Unión vs Osasuna II — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Real Unión
Real Unión
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Osasuna II
Osasuna II
5/9/2021Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2nd Phase - 6Estadio Gal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Real Unión45%
×Draw27%
Osasuna II28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Unión
1.38
Osasuna II
1.02

Real Unión creates 35% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 46 away

creates per match

Real Unión
1.26
Osasuna II
0.96

allows per match

Real Unión
1.07
Osasuna II
1.50

finishing

Real Unión+0.00on par
Osasuna II+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Unión ↓

Osasuna II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Real Unión or draw
72%
Real Unión or Osasuna II
73%
Draw or Osasuna II
55%

Winning margin

Real Unión wins by 2+
21%
Osasuna II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Real Unión 1+ goals
75%
Real Unión 2+ goals
40%
Real Unión 3+ goals
16%
Osasuna II 1+ goals
64%
Osasuna II 2+ goals
27%
Osasuna II 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Real Unión (draw refunded)
62%
Osasuna II (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Unión at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.07 · 46 matches

Osasuna II away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.50 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Unión attack 1.26 + Osasuna II defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.38

Osasuna II attack 0.96 + Real Unión defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Real Unión scores more
45%
level
27%
Osasuna II scores more
28%

Real Unión at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Real Unión will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Real Unión 0–1 Osasuna II

Osasuna II beat Real Unión 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on May 9, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Gal in Irún.