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Real Unión vs Mérida AD — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Real Unión
Real Unión
Preview
15:00
Mérida AD
Mérida AD
5/9/2027Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 36Stadium Gal
45%
Real Unión
model favours
45%27%28%

Real Unión score first in only 8% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
58%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Real Unión45%
×Draw27%
Mérida AD28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Unión
1.36
Mérida AD
1.02

Real Unión creates 33% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 37 away

creates per match

Real Unión
1.46
Mérida AD
0.92

allows per match

Real Unión
1.11
Mérida AD
1.27

finishing

Real Unión+0.00on par
Mérida AD+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Unión ↓

Mérida AD →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Real Unión or draw
72%
Real Unión or Mérida AD
73%
Draw or Mérida AD
55%

Winning margin

Real Unión wins by 2+
21%
Mérida AD wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Real Unión 1+ goals
74%
Real Unión 2+ goals
39%
Real Unión 3+ goals
16%
Mérida AD 1+ goals
64%
Mérida AD 2+ goals
27%
Mérida AD 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Real Unión (draw refunded)
61%
Mérida AD (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Unión at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.11 · 57 matches

Mérida AD away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.27 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Unión attack 1.46 + Mérida AD defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.36

Mérida AD attack 0.92 + Real Unión defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Real Unión scores more
45%
level
27%
Mérida AD scores more
28%

Real Unión at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Real Unión will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 79% of Real Unión’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Real Unión have scored in 7 games running
  • Real Unión win just 21% against the top half (vs 51% against the bottom)
  • Real Unión and Mérida AD have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Unión
WLDLW
AD
WDLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Real Unión vs Mérida AD — Match Preview

Real Unión face Mérida AD on May 9, 2027 in this Primera División RFEF - Group 1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Real Unión host Mérida AD at Stadium Gal.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.