Real Titánico 2–0 Mosconia: Result & Stats

Real Titánico

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Mosconia

Marcos Iglesias 78'

Monasterio 10'

10/12/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 8Estadio De Fútbol Las Tolvas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Real Titánico36%

×Draw27%

Mosconia37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real TitánicoExpected goals in this matchMosconia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.23

Real Titánico

1.21

Mosconia

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 97 home / 83 away

1.13

creates per match

1.04

1.43

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Real Titánico

1.13

Mosconia

1.04

allows per match

Real Titánico

1.43

Mosconia

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Titánico+0.00on par

Mosconia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Titánico ↓

Mosconia →

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Real Titánico or draw

63%

Real Titánico or Mosconia

73%

Draw or Mosconia

64%

Winning margin

Real Titánico wins by 2+

15%

Mosconia wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Real Titánico 1+ goals

70%

Real Titánico 2+ goals

34%

Real Titánico 3+ goals

12%

Mosconia 1+ goals

71%

Mosconia 2+ goals

35%

Mosconia 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Real Titánico (draw refunded)

49%

Mosconia (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Real Titánico at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.43 · 97 matches

Mosconia away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.30 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Real Titánico attack 1.13 + Mosconia defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.21

Mosconia attack 1.04 + Real Titánico defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

Real Titánico scores more

36%

level

27%

Mosconia scores more

37%

Mosconia at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Mosconia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

Monasterio

56'

Julen Escudero← Quintin

56'

Gabriel Ajuchi← Juanín Carús

57'

Marcos Iglesias← Joel Salazar

68'

Diego Sánchez← Monasterio

68'

Samu Perez← Sergio Ismael

78'

Marcos Iglesias

83'

Mateo Biforcos← Yosu Camporro

83'

Carlos Carcedo← Álex García

88'

Ignacio Lastra← Adrián Rodríguez

Real

Mosconia

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Monasteri

▼

Ismael

Manager: Marcos Suárez

57'▲Marcos Iglesias←▼Joel Salazar

68'▲Diego Sánchez←▼Monasterio

68'▲Samu Perez←▼Sergio Ismael

83'▲Mateo Biforcos←▼Yosu Camporro

83'▲Carlos Carcedo←▼Álex García

Real Titánico substitutes

IglesiasSánchezPerezBiforcosCarcedo

Manager: Castaño

56'▲Julen Escudero←▼Quintin

56'▲Gabriel Ajuchi←▼Juanín Carús

88'▲Ignacio Lastra←▼Adrián Rodríguez

Mosconia substitutes

EscuderoAjuchiLastra